October 6, 2016 - Prior to the June Primary Election we described how we analyze turnout data using data analysis tools from MIT. We now have additional data from the June Primary that has aided us in further analyzing trends to closely forecast the number of voting booths we will need at each polling place.

We learned from June that 12.4% of the total polling place voters turned out between 7 and 8 p.m.  We targeted this time as the potentially busiest for November 8th - factoring in an estimated 80% turnout rate of non vote-by-mail voters. We selected a maximum wait time of 15 minutes (with service levels set at 90%) - this gives us predictions of 113 voters per hour at the busiest sites in Orange County to 2.76 voters per hour at the least busiest.

Finally - the most important data - how long will it take to vote? In June our time trials showed an average voting time of just under 5 minutes - but for November it is 8.25 minutes. This dramatically changes the allocation of booths for November. For instance, in order to hit 90% service levels 64 of our sites will require 16+ voting booths (which means dual set-ups).

This is the most accurate forecasting we have used to date - all in an effort to reduce wait times and hit the target of no more than 30 minutes as recommended by the Presidential Commission on Election Administration.